Climate change threatens Pakistan's wheat production

"Various studies in South Asia and China have established that just a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature during the wheat growing season may cause a decline in yield of 3 percent," said Naseer Memon, a prominent environmentalist and chief executive of SPO (Strengthening Participatory Organisation), a Pakistani NGO that works on emergency relief and community-led development

China's wheat yield has dropped 4.5 percent in the past two decades, and India has experienced a similar decrease, Memon said. "Hence rising temperatures in Pakistan are likely to negatively impact the wheat yield and thus trigger food scarcity over the coming decades," he added.

Wheat-based flat breads, such as chapattis, are the main food for Pakistan's poor rural people.

The country's main wheat-growing areas are located in the plains of Sindh and Punjab, where warmer temperatures are shortening the winters and could lead to lower wheat yields. Farmland in these areas has also been damaged by this summer's devastating floods.

"We are expecting a 4 to 6 degree Celsius (temperature) increase by the end of the century. Climate change will decrease yields of wheat by 25 per cent if we use the present technology," said Arshad Mahmood Khan, director of the government's Global Change Impact Studies Centre, which is based in the environment ministry. "But if we used better technology, the impact of climate change would be minimised."

Khan said recent heavy rains and flooding in Pakistan are most likely due to changes in the world's climate. The last decade or so has been exceptionally warm. And this year, temperatures broke records in several Pakistani cities - touching 53 degrees in Sibi in Balochistan, for example, Khan noted.

Across the globe, other extreme weather events over the past few months include a heat wave in Russia that caused forest fires and destroyed wheat crops, causing the price to soar on international markets. Parts of China have also suffered flooding and mudslides.

FLOODS HAMPER PLANTING

The flooding in Pakistan not only displaced millions of farmers, but also destroyed more than half a million tonnes of wheat seed stocks, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

In addition, farmers were preparing their land for planting when the floods began, washing away the fertile top layer of soil in some places. In other areas, the land is still waterlogged or covered in silt.

In Jamshoro, some 165 km from Karachi, Shaman Ali, 65, from Kubba Saeed Khan village in Shahzadkot in the interior of Sindh, said he and his family of nine would have to stay in their makeshift tent for at least eight months, until the floodwaters on his five-acre plot subside.

"My (rice) paddy crop was almost ripe for harvesting but it has gone. Never before in my life have I witnessed such flooding," he said, adding he has suffered a loss of 600,000-700,000 rupees ($7,000-$8,000).

Karim Baksh, 45, observed that the atmosphere became very hot in the village after the floods hit, as if heat were emanating from the ground. Another villager, Sikander Ali, said his family would suffer because the water had washed away his 250-acre rice field.

In early September, the FAO called for more international funds to provide Pakistani farmers with wheat seeds in areas where they could still be planted up until the end of November.

"If the next wheat crop is not salvaged, the food security of millions will be at risk," warned Daniele Donati, the FAO's head of emergency operations for Asia.

SHORTER GROWING SEASON

Besides the immediate challenges, there is a longer-term threat to crops from shifting seasons, said Zaffar Junejo, chief operating officer for the non-profit Thardeep Rural Development Programme.

In Pakistan, summers are gradually becoming longer and winters shorter, reducing the length of the wheat growing season. In addition, monsoon rains have been delayed by up to a month in some places. As wheat needs moisture and coolness to grow, it is one of the first crops to be affected by changes in the local climate, Junejo said.

These have been occurring over a long period of time. In the 1970s, wheat was sown mainly in October and November, and was traditionally harvested in June and July. But in the 1980s, the harvest was brought forward to May and more recently to April, as weather patterns have altered, Junejo explained.

"(Wheat) germination has become weak because the plant is not getting the required coolness," he said. "No wonder its per-acre yield has been reduced."

MITIGATING THE WORST EFFECTS

Research published in October by Britain's Leeds and Exeter universities and the Met Office Hadley Centre warned that large-scale crop failures, like that of Russia's 2010 wheat crop, will likely become more common under climate change due to a higher frequency of extreme weather events, including more intense monsoon rains.

But the study - which focused on wheat crops in northeast China - said the worst effects of global warming could be mitigated by improved farming and the development of new crops.

Pakistan's efforts in these areas are still at an early stage. Before the Global Change Impact Studies Centre was set up in 2001, there was almost no climate change research in the country, according to its director Khan.

The centre established a task force on climate change in October 2008, and submitted a comprehensive report in February this year which outlines how to respond to the challenges of global warming in Pakistan's water, agriculture and forest sectors.

While concrete measures have yet to be taken, Khan said several agricultural universities are producing research on the expected impacts of climate change on food production.

They have also developed drought- and flood-resistant crop varieties, including a "Maxipak" wheat strain that is only one foot tall and can withstand heavy rains.

However, there is an urgent need for more work on projects that specifically tackle climate change, according to Khan. "Different institutions are trying to cope with the challenge. This is a constant effort against nature," he said.

Source: www.alertnet.org