A brief history of Climate Change and Human Displacement

Global climate varies naturally, but scientists agree that rising concentrations of anthropogenically-produced greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere are leading to changes in the climate.

It is widely acknowledged that climate change will, over the short- and long-term, lead to an increase in the severity of droughts, land degradation, desertification, salinization, riverbank and coastal erosion, sea-level rise and the intensity of floods, tropical cyclones and other geophysical events.

This in turn will negatively affect crop yields and food production, water supplies, livelihoods and human settlements. An impact of particular concern is the potential for human displacement and migration. Moreover, with respect to humanitarian consequences and challenges, it is projected that climate change and the increasing frequency of natural disasters will trigger larger and more complex movements of people, including large-scale displacement of people, both within and across borders, and has the potential to render some people stateless. The implications for human welfare and security, and for strategies for adaptation, DRR, humanitarian aid and protection of displaced people, could be far-reaching.

While environmental migration is not officially recognized, the international community is increasingly acknowledging the fact that environmental degradation and climate change could potentially result in population displacement on a scale the world is currently ill equipped to address in an effective manner. According to the International Organization on Migration (IOM), the number of persons forced to move due to climate change and environmental degradation by 2050 is forecasted to vary by a factor of 40 (between 25 million and 1 billion) and largely depends on which climate scenario unfolds. The world’s poorest and most crisis-prone countries will be disproportionately affected, with the level of vulnerability, exposure to risk and capacities of people being some determining factors leading to migration.

Given the limited consensus on the present role of environmental change, including climate change, as a driving force for displacement, many argue that a closer dialogue between climate change scientists, humanitarian actors and policy makers is essential for initiating an informed policy discussion on how to deal with human displacement in the context of a changing climate.

Source:- chimalaya.org